Kevin Ryan in Tokyo

Category: economics

  • Classes Day 1

    I started school today. For my third-year students I have an activity where we look at how much each class session costs them. We divide tuition (about ¥1.2 million, or US$14,000) by the number of classes in a year (usually around 400, each 90 minutes). They usually guess pretty closely to the ¥3,000 ($35) price for each session. But then we add room and board (another ¥1 million) and lost opportunity costs. We define those as if they could work their part-time jobs 40 hours a week, instead of studying. That adds another ¥2.4 million, more than tripling the per-class cost to a total of more than ¥11,000. That is about $130 per 90-minute session. For each student. Sure, I explain they also get the office staff, the library, our Boston Campus, and 3 other retreat centers, the Career Advisory staff, etc, etc,. But they get the idea.

    Unfortunately, it didn’t last too long. At the end of the class, I gave the students the option of using their laptop computers in class with our new wireless system, or the other option of a paper-only class. I told them web-based activities would be more  interesting, and that they could learn much more, and more quickly. Most thought that carrying their laptop into school was too much of a burden. So we are using paper. (I have 3 classes where they don’t get the option, they HAVE to bring their laptops. At least they will get some muscle tone.)

    Because of the electric situation, we will be finishing our semester 2 weeks early, just ast he really hot weather kicks in, and the air conditioner usage surges, causing rolling blackouts (but not in our area). I think it may have been that the university saw everyone else getting a late start, and wanted to get in on the inaction. The students cheered when they heard the news. So we have both administration and students working the system to get something for nothing, or, more accurately, less for the same.

    I find it so hard not to just go along.

  • Earthquake Day 21

    The buds are plumping here in Tokyo ready to burst forth in their frothy cascade of pink and white effervescence, evanescent impermanence, tantalizing with their bouquet. The days warming, the nights still a little chill, but one of 3 bedcovers are folded up.

    OK, OK, too poetic. But you get the idea. Spring has sprung. Or is about to.

    The winds are now favoring us, but as the counts of sieverts (a German scientist) and bequerels (a French scientist) make me wonder how the Europeans measured, the Americans built and used, then spread the nuclear tool to countries like Japan. A worldwide concern, but in our back yard. We have the radio on most of the day, but pay little attention any more. It is easier for me, with the announcements in Japanese.

    I scoff at the Goldman Sachs employees, so well paid, ready to flee, having to be ordered to stay here in town. No loyalty, only raw Darwinian economics, self-interest at the core. Did you know Adam Smith wrote a companion volume to his economic masterpiece, The Wealth of Nations? In a prequel, designed to lay the groundwork for Wealth, he set the stage with The Theory of Moral Sentiments. They should be read as a pair. The Goldman people, indeed many economic schools after Keynes have ignored the moral element of economics.

    But enough of abstracts. Three weeks after the earthquakes, organizations like the 3,000 strong JALT (Japan Association for Language Teaching) has been able to find about three fourths of its 250 members in the quake affected area. Many groups are mounting donation drives, aware that as the media attention subsides, so does the money. This is slated to be the most costly disaster on record, in economic terms. The loss of life is only now hitting home here.

    The biggest news for those of us in education is the change in schedules. My daughter goes to 6th-ranked Hosei University, and will have her spring vacation extended until after Golden Week, the break we take the first week of May. Many other schools are doing the same. Not mine, though. We start tomorrow. Some part-time teachers without as much anchor here have left, so there is a scramble to fill empty slots at the absolute last minute. I expect to have my class load increased. I don’t mind, but will have to watch that this not become an excuse for adding permanent responsibilities. Already there is talk of using the disaster to increase consumption taxes from 5% to 10%.

    Fear and uncertainty are making everyone jumpy. I don’t look forward to the first day back.

  • Earthquake Day 13

    For now, some bits and babs.

    Woke up this morning and almost got shook out of bed by another earthquake. Late afternoon, another small shake. Learning to live with this daily wobble is difficult. The shake this morning put the kitchen door out of whack, so it won’t close. Have to get the sander out and shave down the door. Maybe that is what got Maki stuck in the bathroom while I was gone.
    Good news is that the radiation level in the water has dropped so babies can drink from the faucet (but only if they can reach it). We were supposed to have 3 hours blackout this afternoon, but that was cancelled (yeah!). But it is looking like these blackouts will continue for at least a year. Summer is going to be really sticky…will have to plan to be at school. The grid is being refined now for the blackout groups, with the number rising from 5 to 25 so they can manage to keep energy use up to capacity. So I guess we will be having, along with the daily weather forecast and radiation/pollen count, a blackout map.
    The slightly derogatory term for a foreigner here in Japan is “gaijin”. A little more formal, and a little more neutral, “gaikokujin” (outside-country-person). New term in the foreign community is for residents that left the country and are now coming back: flyjin. Your language lesson for the day.
    Had a good laugh when somebody told me my picture during the blackout made me look like Qaddafi. Green hat and scarf matched, and I am working on the putty face. Just wish I had somebody to dictate to (hmmm, students?…I’m getting some ideas here….).
    Our graduation was rescheduled, and now cancelled. I feel sorry for the students. Lines for gasoline and other products have disappeared. Only milk is hard to find. And bottled water. I bought in haste 12 days ago, and we served sparkling water to the cat by mistake. He wouldn’t drink it. The rest of the bottle we mixed with crystal light to make a weird soda-pop.

  • Earthquake Update Day 9

    Not much happened yesterday, so there was no Update Day 8.

    This morning we awoke to reports that Reactors 5&6 were under control. They are still working on 2 & 3, trying to get electricity to the pumps or water to the reactors. Work is proceeding slowly but surely.
    Weather has moderated, yesterday it got up to 70 degrees. Today should get to 65 degrees. It may rain, though. Because of the mild weather, electric usage is down and there have not been any power outages yesterday or today.
    Radiation levels look safe for now, except for some milk and spinach harvested just after the leak. Most Chernobyl victims got their radiation through eating tainted foods. Good to see people monitoring the radiation.
    Aftershocks continue, but at a much reduced frequency. See this map and wait for all 611 aftershocks (and counting) in the last week. Relief efforts are being organized, finally there is gasoline up in the north, and the roads are being repaired to allow access to the devastated areas. Even the Yakuza (Japanese mafia) is sending up trucks of supplies.
    The biggest news here in Japan is the backlash against the over-dramatization of the situation by the western media, Fox news in particular, along with the HuffPost. People have been seeing reports of panic, fleeing and the like, and not seeing that here on the ground. The US Government advises evacuation for people living 50 miles from the nuclear reactors, and has gone on to set up flights out of the country, and trains from Sendai to Tokyo, for US citizens. They advise us to leave the country, the only foreign government that is suggesting this. My friend’s daughter returned from Minneapolis yesterday on a flight only 1/3 occupied. She stretched out across the 5 middle seats. Other friends are returning from a teaching conference in New Orleans, and report similar occupancies.
    Meanwhile the cherry is about to blossom. Dad will remember that from 2 years ago. An utterly beautiful time of year here in Japan. I may get an early glimpse of that because I have a meeting for conference planning in Kyushu, the southernmost island tomorrow through Wednesday. Julia has work today, she takes information for insurance claims, and said yesterday was boring, not many accidents, as people were staying in. The train schedules are returning to normal, and there is bread and instant ramen back on the shelves, the only thing missing now is milk.

  • Earthquake Day 7: Questions Answered

    People have been writing back to our family, mostly with support, but also with some questions. I hope this will help.
    How far are you from the nuclear plants?
    We live west and south of Tokyo. Kawasaki is like Oak Brook to Chicago, or Englewood to Denver. Kawasaki is wedged in between Tokyo and Yokohama, splitting the two with the narrow point at Tokyo Bay, where all the factories are, and the wider part up the river, mostly residential where we live. The nuclear plants are in Fukushima, north and east, just south of Sendai, about 300 km (180 miles) from Tokyo. So we are about 200 miles away from the coast of Fukushima (good map).
    Is the Japanese government trustworthy?
    When it comes to nuclear accidents, the track record is not very good. Facts were stretched, and important information not disclosed. But that was when Japan had a one-party system (Liberal Democrats..who are very conservative). A second party (Social Democrats…who are not too popular because they have gone back on some promises to support families with kids) is now in power, and has taken a new view toward information. The Assistant Prime Minister Edano has been unfailing in keeping the country up to date so far. I think the Japanese public understand that this is an unprecedented situation, but they do have trust in the government.
    Are people leaving Japan in droves?
    Although the airports are full, this is normal for this time of year. The school year just finished, and spring vacation means a great exodus anyway. Those fleeing the zones of destruction tend to visit relatives or friends in other parts of Japan. Foreigners are leaving in greater than usual numbers. The UK and Australia are advising movement away from the areas of destruction, but only within Japan. The US is the only one sponsoring flights out of the country for government workers and citizens (to Taiwan, on an Army transport plane, and you have to pay them back at commercial rates). Flights out are from Narita, Tokyo’s international airport (3 hours by train toward the destruction for us), or Nagoya (2 hours away).

    When you have electricity, can you point your fans to blow the radiation north and west to cover North Korea?
    Good idea.

    Do your ATMs take coins?
    They certainly do. I went into the bank proper and talked to a real person, a nice young lady (half of our graduates used to become bank clerks), and they took care of my coins. The one bank had their computers down (maybe we should call Jeff Brazel at TierTwo), but all the other banking, finance, stock markets, retail stores and services are trying to get back to normal, with the only thing holding them back are the 3-hour blackouts. So they make announcements “Ladies and Gentlemen, please proceed to the exit, we will be closing in 10 minutes because of blackout.” People are cooperative here. Note that there are 2 main electric grids in Japan. Western Japan (Osaka and west) run on 110v and 60 cycles like the US. Eastern Japan (Tokyo and north) run on 110v and 50 cycles. (US made clocks run slow here in Tokyo.) So the blackouts are mostly in the Tokyo area.

    Do you think you might leave if it gets worse?
    All three of us are on break between school years. We’ve talked about hopping down to Guam, but just want to wait and see for now. We feel that the probability of any radiation of significant strength making it all the way to Tokyo is close to zero. Up north, that is another story. My friends living just west of Fukushima city moved away for now, just in case. There is one family I know who I can’t get a hold of. Our university has a small retreat facility about 50 miles away from the nuclear facility. They were thinking about selling it last year…too late now.

    Was there mismanagement at the nuclear facilities?
    The facilities were built up over the years, with the first one being installed by GE, and others by other companies like Toshiba. Tokyo Electric has followed all the government regulations. The 50 guys staying on are seen as heroes right now, and are a result of the Prime Minister putting pressure on Tokyo Electric. The plants may have been constructed too close together. There is a saying here in Japan, “Fix the problem before you fix the blame.” We are still in the first stage on that one.

    Is it deserted there?
    Even though all the businesses are up and running in Tokyo, the blackouts and uncertainty have caused a great reduction of normal living activity. I liken it to New Year’s here. You wake up on the morning of Jan. 1, eat a very nice (but cold) breakfast and drink some rice wine, and then hang out for 3 days, sitting under the short heated table with a blanket and watch really boring foot races, and contemplate the past year and the year ahead. You eat a lot of tangerines (in season and delicious), and more of the cold food (so the women don’t have to cook). You might venture out to the local hot bath place in the afternoon, but stay at home otherwise. It is kind of like that here. The constant Earthquake coverage on TV is now yielding back to the silly contest shows and melodramatic series. Trains are back up and running at about half the frequency of normal. People will be going out soon.


    Are you getting on each other’s nerves?

    Maki had us tape up all the windows, then after a shower opens the bathroom to get the steam out. There was a booming sound the other day with the wind, so I had to go buy a fricking ladder and climb up on the roof to see if there might be something loose. I have discovered I don’t really like heights any more. I fall off, try to find an ambulance? Ha. Julia continues to drop her coat on the floor, mistaking it for a hangar. Julia and Maki insist on getting Dexter the cat a harness and leash, and torturing him to try it out in case he needs to go out if there is an earthquake. Me: He’s not a dog. There won’t be enough time to get that on if there is an earthquake. He’s not a toy. Sheesh. Julia: Yeah, but at least we should have some fun preparing for a nuclear explosion.

    And complaints from everybody at home. Not out in public, mind you, but at home. Just have to remember we have it really good compared to the people up north. We feel lucky.


    How can we help?

    There are a lot of organizations out there that are lending support to Japan right now. There are also a lot of fake places accepting money. Stick to the ones you know. Doctors without Borders has been mentioned. While most of the local information is in Japanese, there is ourteacher’s organization that is organizing support on many levels.


    Do you see any light at the end of the tunnel?

    We are all hoping for a resolution to the nuclear problem soon, and it looks like the reactors are cooling, finally. But the overall effects will be felt for weeks, months and even years. But they are not insurmountable.


    Well, better get this off. It is getting dark, and the power will be cut 6-9 tonight. Reading by flashlight under the covers in order. Makes me feel like a kid again. Tomorrow will be in the 70’s. Maybe time try out the new Weber.